Dishin’ on the Brackets: The Final Four

If you remember any predictions I have ever made in tournaments past, I never pick chalk.

Chalk is boring. I try to add spice to my picks, pick a few upsets.

But, with journalistic integrity goes honesty, unfortunately, and I just do not see anyone knocking off the top four seeds prior to Denver.

Baylor, Stanford, Connecticut and Notre Dame have distinguished themselves throughout the season, and will have earned their spots in the rarified air of Denver. So who will cut the nets down?

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL – BAYLOR VERSUS STANFORD

Those Ogwumikes are like gnats to an opponent! They swarm around, cause trouble, annoy the heck out of you, and send you packing to another location. Enter the giant fly swatter.

By the time she reaches Denver, Brittney Griner will have been pushed and shoved by big bodies, double and triple teamed by smaller bodies, and hacked by just about every size player you can imagine. But she will not have faced the combination of speed, quickness, and physicality she will get with Chiney and Nneka Ogwumike. They will make it tough for Griner to dominate the paint, and Nneka’s new found outside shooting confidence will certainly stretch things out. Toni Kokenis and Lindy La Rocque will be crucial for Stanford, as the Baylor back court is strong on both ends of the court as well.

For Baylor, Griner is always the focal point and she will get help from Destiny Williams and Brooklyn Pope inside. Point guard Odyssey Sims, herself an All-American candidate, is not a good match up for Stanford. Stanford does not have a good match for Sims’ athleticism and scoring ability on the break. Sims is so good, that people often overlook Kimetria Hayden, Jordan Madden and Terran Condrey, her running mates.

ESPN is looking forward to the Nneka versus Brittney match up, and I know I am. Two finalists for the Naismith award, as well as just about every top award, plus the number one picks in the next two WNBA drafts.

In the end, though only one can advance, and Baylor is too deep, too strong and too aggressive to be stopped here. Griner will still find a way to dominate on both ends of the court, and the Bears will play for the national title.

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL – CONNECTICUT VERSUS NOTRE DAME

If Notre Dame had managed to win the Big East tournament final between these two powerhouses, we would be looking at a repeat of last season, when Baylor defeated Texas A&M three times before facing them in the Final Four. Connecticut took that edge off the game though, with their tournament title, ending the Irish’s three game winning streak against the Huskies.

Both could take plenty from that game. UConn played very well, most notably they rebounded and defended, and Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis proved that she could indeed by the go to closer the team needs. Notre Dame played perhaps their worst game of the season, except for their loss to West Virginia, and still were in it right until the end. Plus they have those two earlier victories to look at.

Bottom line is these two times know each other as well or better than anyone. Both have extremely strong rotations, but they are short rotations. Neither team really likes to go more than seven or eight deep at most. They know each other’s nuances and style, they know the game and personality of each of the players.

People forget some times how young this UConn team really is. Tiffany Hayes is a senior, Caroline Doty and Kelly Faris are juniors, but Stefanie Dolson and Bria Hartley are sophomores, and Mosqueda-Lewis is a freshman. Notre Dame on the other hand has three seniors or beyond in Natalie Novosel, Devereaux Peters and Brittany Mallory, a junior in Skylar Diggins and sophomore Kayla McBride.

When they meet for a fourth time, the sophomores may be the difference makers. Hartley and Dolson played great in the Big East tournament for Connecticut, and McBride was the best overall player on the court that night. For Connecticut to win this game, they will have to again come up big, and neutralize the experience of the Irish.

Notre Dame has been pushing to get to the finals ever since their missed opportunity last season against Texas A&M. They will not be denied, and the Irish will advance to their second consecutive final, again to face a Big 12 opponent.

NATIONAL FINALS – BAYLOR VERSUS NOTRE DAME

All season I have been saying on the Dishin & Swishin podcast (and writing on Hoopfeed) that Notre Dame is in my opinion the one team in the country capable of defeating Baylor.

Griner is the best, but Peters has the quickness and physicality combination to somewhat neutralize Griner as well as anyone can.

Diggins and Sims are a push as two of the best point guards in the country, who do everything needed but will score big points at big times.

The relentless way Novosel attacks the basket again and again could pose some issues for Baylor’s aggressive nature on defense, and she could spend a lot of time at the foul line.

McBride has become a cool, impressive all around performer, who makes the shots when they are given to her, and knows when to dish when necessary; Hayden does the same thing for Baylor.

Mallory is deadly if given three point opportunities and is a ferocious defender that does not get as much credit as she deserves. Baylor’s wing defenders will have to know where she is.

That said, all of those things need to happen for Notre Dame to win this game. As good as the Irish are, Baylor has all that and the six-foot-eight-inch tall bag of chips.

Griner’s improvement from last season, including her time with USA Basketball, has been absolutely amazing. She has developed a hook shot, a foul line jumper, a turnaround, and so many offensive moves. Defensively, her timing has improved, and she is getting in less foul trouble going after silly block attempts.

Sims has become an All-American and is lethal on the fast break, both going to the rim and pulling up. She also may be the best on ball defending guard in the country already, and she is just a sophomore.

Hayden has improved her offense to the point she is good for around nine points per game and she can shoot the open jump shot if teams sag on Griner.

Williams is the player people expected when she enrolled at Illinois to start her career; a big rebounder, aggressive pursuer of every loose ball, and a smart player with or without the ball.

The game also features two great coaches, the stoic Muffett McGraw of Notre Dame, and the fiery Kim Mulkey of Baylor.

This one has been destined to happen since the beginning of the year. In the end it will be perfect. Not necessarily the game, but the season for Baylor.

Brittney Griner and the Bears will be cutting down the nets in Denver. The perfect season will be achieved.